Every few decades, industries change their rhythm. Once upon a time, chip development was a gold rush — countless players trying to outpace Moore’s Law. Then reality struck: the complexity, cost, and specialization needed were too high. Today, only a handful of companies actually design or manufacture cutting-edge chips.
The same story unfolded with operating systems. Remember when every university lab, hardware vendor, and software house wanted to create their own OS? Fast-forward, and now we’re basically living in a world dominated by Linux, Windows, and macOS. The OS dreamers either consolidated, pivoted, or disappeared.
And now, here’s the point: what happened with chips and operating systems may well be happening with the software industry at large.
Too Many Builders, Too Few Differentiators
Software used to be the ultimate playground. Build a tool, slap on some UI, raise funding, and you were in the game. Today, it feels eerily similar to the overcrowded chip and OS days — thousands of products, many looking and behaving the same, differentiated only by slight UI tweaks or pricing.
AI has accelerated this sameness. With generative AI, it’s easier than ever to create software fast. But when everyone can build at speed, the moat isn’t in building anymore — it’s in sustaining, scaling, and deeply integrating.
The Hidden Cost of Scale
Just like chip fabs became prohibitively expensive, running serious software at scale isn’t cheap. Cloud costs, data pipelines, compliance, security, global availability — the bar is rising every year. Small players can build, yes, but sustaining long-term? That’s where many will fold or merge.
We’re already seeing hints of this. Some once “hot” SaaS startups are fading because they can’t compete with hyperscalers who offer the same features as checkboxes.
A World of a Few Giants, Many Specialists
Chips went from dozens of global players to a few dominant ones. OS went from chaos to three pillars. Software might follow — but with a twist.
I don’t believe we’ll end up with only three companies running all software (though some days it feels like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are trying!). Instead, I think we’ll see a barbell distribution:
- On one end: the hyperscale giants with platforms and ecosystems.
- On the other: specialists who thrive by serving very niche, very deep needs.
The middle? It’s already starting to thin out.
What This Means for Builders and Professionals
If you’re a software builder, this isn’t a doom story. It’s actually a clarity story. The age of chasing “yet another CRM, but prettier” is ending. The future belongs to those who either:
- Build on top of platforms (like extensions, apps, or plug-ins that add unique value).
- Go deep into niche expertise where hyperscalers won’t bother competing.
For professionals, it means sharpening skills in integration, architecture, and domain-driven problem-solving. Writing code isn’t enough — the differentiator is how you connect dots across business, data, and tech.
The Echo of History
History tends to rhyme. Chip development consolidated. OS development consolidated. Software might just be writing its own consolidation story. The noise will reduce, the giants will grow, and the specialists will carve out thriving corners.
And maybe, just maybe, the coming decade in software will teach us the same lesson industries before us learned: sometimes it’s not about building more, it’s about building deeper.
BrontoWise 
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